Big Ten tiebreakers and scenarios

As the Big Ten regular season is winding down, the race between the Big Ten's top five teams - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin - is largely unsettled. There are five games remaining that will effect the outcome of the Big Ten title race and the seeding for the Big Ten tournament.

Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Tonight, 8:00 pm CT - ESPN

Wisconsin @ Penn State - Sunday, 11:00 am CT - BTN

Illinois @ Ohio State - Sunday, 11:30 am CT - ESPN

Indiana @ Michigan - Sunday, 3 pm CT - CBS

Northwestern @ Michigan state - Sunday, 5 pm CT - BTN

I put together a chart of all the possible outcomes of the 5 games listed above. The columns

represent the seed in the Big Ten tournament, and the number listed in parentheses is the team's final position in the standing for that particular outcome. e.g. In the first outcome Indiana would win the Big Ten outright at 14-4, followed by a 12-6 three-way tie for second with Wisconsin receiving the 2 seed, OSU the 3, and Michigan the 4 due to tiebreakers. Michigan State would finish 11-7, finishing in 5th place and earning the 5th seed.

What this means:

-Indiana is guaranteed an outright Big Ten championship if they beat Michigan.

-The loser of tonight's Wisconsin/MSU game has only an 18% chance of securing a top 4 seed and first round bye in the Big Ten tournament. A loss by either team will also eliminate them from earning a share of the Big Ten title.

-If MSU wins tonight, Indiana clinches the #1 seed in the Big Ten tournament

-Ohio State is eliminated from earning a share of the conference title should they lose to Illinois.

-Michigan is eliminated from earning a share of the conference title should they lose to Indiana.

I'm not sure how this will all shake out in the end, but I do know this, it will be fun to watch.

How deliberate is the Badgers offense?

As a die-hard Wisconsin Badgers fan, and college basketball fan in general, I tend to watch a lot of shows and read copious amounts of articles that feature national pundits and their views on college basketball. One thing I've come to notice is that there seems to be a belief out there that Wisconsin likes to wait until there is under 20 seconds left on the shot clock before running a set play or that the Badgers like to shoot the ball in the final ten seconds of the shot clock. Simply put, that's just not true, and here's why.

I decided to go back and take a look at every Wisconsin game in conference play this season and make a chart that depicts when the Badgers took their shots in relation to the shot clock, and how often they took those shots. I did not count possessions that ended in turnovers, only possessions that ended in a shot attempt, or free throws as a result of a shooting foul.

As you can probably see from this graph, Wisconsin is actually MORE likely to shoot the ball in the first ten seconds of the shot clock than the last ten. Didn't expect that, did you? On average the Badgers attempt a field goal with 19.09 seconds remaining on the shot clock, and while these types of stats don't exist for other teams, I'm betting that Wisconsin is nowhere near the slowest team on offense.

There is no denying, however, that the Badgers are one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 324th out of 347 in tempo by www.kenpom.com. The stats show defense almost has as big of an effect on Wisconsin's tempo as the offense does.

At first glace, it may look like Wisconsin's conference opponents all took shots earlier in the shot clock than did the Badgers. However, the average time remaining on the shot clock when a field goal was attempted was 20.18 seconds. A little over a second earlier than the Badgers' 19.09. Really not much of a difference and as those numbers are so similar it stands to reason the Badgers' slow tempo is a result of both their offense and defense. Not just a slow-it-down offense like some pundits would lead you to believe.

If you would like to see game by game charts you can find them here(Wisconsin) and here(Wisconsin's opponents).

Shot clock data: Wisconsin's BIG games

The following charts represent the shot clock data for all of Wisconsin's Big Ten games. I also included the score of the game, points per possession, and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). If you are unfamiliar with either of those stats, I'll give a quick run-down.

Points per possession is quite simply a measure of how many points are scored in every offensive possession. Didn't expect that did you? A PPP north of 1.00 is typically considered good.

Effective field goal percentage is almost the same as regular field goal percentage with added weight for 3 point shots. eg. 4/10 from three: (4x1.5)/10 = 60% eFG is the same as 6/10 (60% eFG) from two while both netting 12 points.

Wisconsin 60-51, 1.02 PPP, 41 eFG%

Wisconsin 47-41, 0.82 PPP, 42 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-51, 1.25 PPP, 58 eFG%

Wisconsin 64-59, 1.08 PPP, 52 eFG%

Iowa 70-66, 1.00 PPP, 52 eFG%

Michigan State 49-47, 0.85 PPP, 37 eFG%

Wisconsin 45-44, 0.88 PPP, 45 eFG%

Ohio State 58-49, 0.89 PPP, 47 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-70 F/2OT, 0.94 PPP, 39 eFG%

Wisconsin 65-62 F/OT, 0.96 PPP, 53 eFG%

Minnesota 58-53 F/OT, 0.88 PPP, 36 eFG%

Wisconsin 71-49, 1.18 PPP, 59 eFG%

Wisconsin 69-41, 1.24 PPP, 51 eFG%

 

Note: shot clock data from home Minnesota game to home Ohio State game were taken from here. Thanks to badgernation.com poster TaxideaTom

Shot clock data: Wisconsin's BIG opponents

The following charts represent the shot clock data for all of Wisconsin's Big Ten opponents in every game vs. the Badgers. I also included the score of the game, points per possession, and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). If you are unfamiliar with either of those stats, I'll give a quick run-down.

Points per possession is quite simply a measure of how many points are scored in every offensive possession. Didn't expect that did you? A PPP north of 1.00 is typically considered good.

Effective field goal percentage is almost the same as regular field goal percentage with added weight for 3 point shots. eg. 4/10 from three: (4x1.5)/10 = 60% eFG is the same as 6/10 (60% eFG) from two while both netting 12 points.

Wisconsin 60-51, 0.86 PPP, 41 eFG%

Wisconsin 47-41, 0.72 PPP, 39 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-51, 0.86 PPP, 37 eFG%

Wisconsin 64-59, 1.00 PPP, 40 eFG%

Iowa 70-66, 1.06 PPP, 42 eFG%

Michigan State 49-47, 0.89 PPP, 43 eFG%

Wisconsin 45-44, .86 PPP, 40 eFG%

Ohio State 58-49, 1.05 PPP, 54 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-68, 0.97 PPP, 45 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-70 F/2OT, 0.89 PPP, 37 eFG%

Wisconsin 65-62 F/OT, 0.91 PPP, 43 eFG%

Minnesota 58-53 F/OT, 0.97 PPP, 41 eFG%

Wisconsin 71-49, 0.82 PPP, 40 eFG%

Wisconsin 69-41, 0.74 PPP, 37 eFG%

Rodgers still put up MVP numbers - and no one seems to notice

For Weeks now we’ve been hearing about two MVP candidates in the NFL; Adrian Peterson, and Peyton Manning. Let me first start off by saying that Adrian Peterson is my MVP. He single handedly carried the Vikings into the playoffs with a season that most won’t forget anytime soon—finishing only 9 yards short of the single season rushing record. Now that I’ve got that off my chest, let’s talk about Aaron Rodgers.

Peyton Manning had a great year. There’s no question about it, but the fact that Rodgers isn’t even being mentioned when the “Who should be the MVP” talks come up in the sports world is mind-boggling. It’s even evident in the All-Pro voting which was released earlier this morning. Manning received 43 votes while Rodgers received only 4. It’s a shame no one is taking notice of Rodgers MVP caliber numbers.

Looking at the stats suggest these are two pretty even quarterbacks. Manning has thrown for 37 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 4,659 yards—in 583 attempts, and a 68.6% completion percentage. On the other hand, Rodgers has thrown for 39 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 4,295 yards—in 552 attempts, and a 67.2% completion percentage. Rodgers also had a passer rating (108.0 to 105.8). Not to mention Rodgers’ mobility both inside and outside the pocket.

I’d like to see what Manning would be able to do in Rodgers’ shoes. Manning has the luxury of playing behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, only being sacked 21 times this years as opposed to Rodgers’ 51. Now, some of those Rodgers sacks are his own fault as he has a tendency to hang on to the ball too long at times, but the Packers O-line has been abysmal all year. I can almost guarantee Manning does not put up the same numbers if he had the Packers’ O-line protecting him, as Peyton doesn’t have the ability to escape the pocket when things collapse as well as Rodgers can.

If you gave Aaron Rodgers the time in the pocket that Manning receives, this wouldn’t even be an argument. You would think that the reigning NFL MVP would be getting a little more love from the hype machine known as ESPN, but it appears as if they’re putting all their eggs in Peyton’s basket. It’s almost as if he being penalized because his numbers are down from perhaps the greatest season by a quarterback ever last year. But make no mistake, Aaron Rodgers still put up MVP caliber numbers this year.