Ninth Inning Stretch: February 2013

How deliberate is the Badgers offense?

As a die-hard Wisconsin Badgers fan, and college basketball fan in general, I tend to watch a lot of shows and read copious amounts of articles that feature national pundits and their views on college basketball. One thing I've come to notice is that there seems to be a belief out there that Wisconsin likes to wait until there is under 20 seconds left on the shot clock before running a set play or that the Badgers like to shoot the ball in the final ten seconds of the shot clock. Simply put, that's just not true, and here's why.

I decided to go back and take a look at every Wisconsin game in conference play this season and make a chart that depicts when the Badgers took their shots in relation to the shot clock, and how often they took those shots. I did not count possessions that ended in turnovers, only possessions that ended in a shot attempt, or free throws as a result of a shooting foul.

As you can probably see from this graph, Wisconsin is actually MORE likely to shoot the ball in the first ten seconds of the shot clock than the last ten. Didn't expect that, did you? On average the Badgers attempt a field goal with 19.09 seconds remaining on the shot clock, and while these types of stats don't exist for other teams, I'm betting that Wisconsin is nowhere near the slowest team on offense.

There is no denying, however, that the Badgers are one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 324th out of 347 in tempo by www.kenpom.com. The stats show defense almost has as big of an effect on Wisconsin's tempo as the offense does.

At first glace, it may look like Wisconsin's conference opponents all took shots earlier in the shot clock than did the Badgers. However, the average time remaining on the shot clock when a field goal was attempted was 20.18 seconds. A little over a second earlier than the Badgers' 19.09. Really not much of a difference and as those numbers are so similar it stands to reason the Badgers' slow tempo is a result of both their offense and defense. Not just a slow-it-down offense like some pundits would lead you to believe.

If you would like to see game by game charts you can find them here(Wisconsin) and here(Wisconsin's opponents).

Shot clock data: Wisconsin's BIG games

The following charts represent the shot clock data for all of Wisconsin's Big Ten games. I also included the score of the game, points per possession, and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). If you are unfamiliar with either of those stats, I'll give a quick run-down.

Points per possession is quite simply a measure of how many points are scored in every offensive possession. Didn't expect that did you? A PPP north of 1.00 is typically considered good.

Effective field goal percentage is almost the same as regular field goal percentage with added weight for 3 point shots. eg. 4/10 from three: (4x1.5)/10 = 60% eFG is the same as 6/10 (60% eFG) from two while both netting 12 points.

Wisconsin 60-51, 1.02 PPP, 41 eFG%

Wisconsin 47-41, 0.82 PPP, 42 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-51, 1.25 PPP, 58 eFG%

Wisconsin 64-59, 1.08 PPP, 52 eFG%

Iowa 70-66, 1.00 PPP, 52 eFG%

Michigan State 49-47, 0.85 PPP, 37 eFG%

Wisconsin 45-44, 0.88 PPP, 45 eFG%

Ohio State 58-49, 0.89 PPP, 47 eFG%

Wisconsin 74-70 F/2OT, 0.94 PPP, 39 eFG%

Wisconsin 65-62 F/OT, 0.96 PPP, 53 eFG%

Minnesota 58-53 F/OT, 0.88 PPP, 36 eFG%

Wisconsin 71-49, 1.18 PPP, 59 eFG%

Wisconsin 69-41, 1.24 PPP, 51 eFG%

Note: shot clock data from home Minnesota game to home Ohio State game were taken from here. Thanks to badgernation.com poster TaxideaTom

Shot clock data: Wisconsin's BIG opponents

The following charts represent the shot clock data for all of Wisconsin's Big Ten opponents in every game vs. the Badgers. I also included the score of the game, points per possession, and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). If you are unfamiliar with either of those stats, I'll give a quick run-down.

Points per possession is quite simply a measure of how many points are scored in every offensive possession. Didn't expect that did you? A PPP north of 1.00 is typically considered good.

Effective field goal percentage is almost the same as regular field goal percentage with added weight for 3 point shots. eg. 4/10 from three: (4x1.5)/10 = 60% eFG is the same as 6/10 (60% eFG) from two while both netting 12 points.