2012-2013 Big Ten Basketball Preview pt. 1/3

The calendar has turned to November and that means it’s time for yet another exciting season of college basketball. By most accounts the Big Ten was the best conference last season and looks to be even better this year. Three teams were ranked in the top five of both the AP and coaches preseason polls. Michigan holds the no. 5 spot, Ohio State comes in at no. 4 and Indiana is the top dog in both the polls. Outside of those three, Michigan State comes in at no. 14 in both polls, while Wisconsin stands at no. 23 in the AP poll and no. 21 in the coaches poll. Minnesota is unranked but garnered some votes in both polls. Needless to say, the Big Ten will be a very tough and competitive conference this year and figures to be yet another force in the college basketball world; but how will the conference shape up this year? Which team will walk away with a Big Ten title at the end of the season? Every team is a little bit different than last year so let’s take a brief look at all of them. We'll start with the bottom four...

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Last season: 4-14 (t-11^th)

Prediction: 2-16

Coach: Tim Miles (first year)

Losses: G Bo Spencer (15.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.3 apg); G Toney McCray (9.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg); C Jorge Brian Diaz (8.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.9 bpg); G Brandon Richardson (7.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.3 apg); G Caleb Walker (6.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.2 apg); G Josiah Moore (1.9 ppg)

Newcomers: PG Deverell Biggs, SG Shavon Shields, C Serej Vucetic, PG Benny Parker

Starting 5: G Dylan Talley, Sr. (8.9 ppg; 3.3 rpg, 1.8 apg); G Ray Gallegos, Jr. (2.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg); F David Rivers, Soph. (1.1 ppg, 0.8 rpg); C Andre Almeda, Sr. (5.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg); F Brandon Ubel, Sr. (6.7 ppg; 5.3 rpg; 1.3 apg).

Nebraska is easily the worst team in the Big Ten and it isn’t close. The Cornhuskers lost over 81% of their scoring from a team that finished tied for last in the conference last year. Need I say more? I gave them 2 wins this year in conference play and even that might be generous. Fortunately they have an incoming guard named Deverell Biggs who is transferring from junior college—He was an All-American last year averaging 14.1 ppg, 3.1 apg, and 3.3 steals per game.

Tim Miles led Colorado State to an NCAA tournament birth last season, but he has a lot of work to do in Lincoln. There’s no place to go but up, but it won’t happen this season.

Northwestern Wildcats

Last season: 19-14 overall, 8-10 (t-7^th)

Prediction: 4-14

Coach: Bill Carmody (12 years, 179-191)

Losses: SF John Shurna (20.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.8 apg); C Luka Mirkovic (5.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.7 apg); F Davide Curletti (3.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.8 apg); G Nick Fruendt (1.0 ppg)

Newcomers: F Jared Swopshire, C Chier Ajou, SF Kale Abrahamson, C Alex Olah, SG Sanjay Lumpkin

Starting 5: G Dave Sobolewski, Soph. (8.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.7 apg); G Reggie Hearn, Sr. (7.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.3 apg); G Sanjay Lumpkin Fr; F Nikola Cerina (5.4 ppg, 4.1rpg); F Drew Crawford, Sr. (16.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.1 apg).

Northwestern failed to make the NCAA tournament yet again last year and this year should be no different. They lose the top scorer in Northwestern history in John Shurna, but senior G Drew Crawford returns—he averaged 16.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 3.7 apg. They also add two transfers to the mix. F Jared Swopshire is a graduate student who’s transferring from Louisville. He didn’t get a ton of playing time there but averaged 3.3 ppg and 2.8 rpg. F Nikola Cerina is cleared to play this year after sitting out last year because of his transfer from TCU. The Wildcats have good depth in the frontcourt especially with 7-foot newcomers Olah and Ajou, however, guard depth might be an issue. Junior guard JerShon Cobb was suspended for the entire season by the Northwestern in September for violating team rules. Cobb averaged 7.1 ppg in 20 minutes per game last season.

The bottom line is until Northwestern changes their awful 1-3-1 defense, things won’t change in Evanston. NIT? Unlikely.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Last Season: 17-15 overall, 6-12 (t-10^th)

Prediction: 6-12

Coach John Groce (first year)

Losses: C Meyers Leonard (13.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.3 apg); G Sam Maniscalco (6.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.3 apg); G Jean Selus (1 minute per game)

Newcomers: F Sam McLaurin, G Mike LaTulip

Starting 5: G Brandon Paul, Sr. (14.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.9 apg); G D.J. Richardson, Sr. (11.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg); F/C Nnanna Egwu, Soph. (1.9 ppg, 1.5 rpg); SF Joseph Bertrand, Jr. (6.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg); F Tyler Griffey, Sr. (4.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg).

They finally got rid of Bruce Webber. Rejoice Illini fans! John Groce will take over after leading Ohio to a Sweet Sixteen last season. He inherits a team that loses arguably it’s best player in Meyers Leonard to the NBA, but what they lost at center, they will gain back (somewhat) at forward. Sam McLurin is a 6-8 grad student who transferred to Illinois from Costal Carolina over the summer. He averaged 10 ppg, 7.5 rpg and 1.2 blocks during his junior year at CC. McLurin is eligible to play because he graduated in May. And of course, they still have guard Brandon Paul who could challenge for First Team All-Big Ten. Outside of Paul, Richardson, and McLaurin, the Illini don’t have a whole lot of depth. Without a true post presence, The Illini need to improve their outside shooting—Illinois only made a Big Ten worst 30.4% from beyond the arc last season. I have trouble seeing Illinois shooting well, though they will be better, and as a result, I think they will struggle in the Big Ten this year and will have a difficult time getting into the NIT.

Purdue Boilermakers

Last season:22-13, 10-8 (6^th)

Prediction: 6-12

Coach: Matt Painter (6 years, 160-77)

Losses: SF Robbie Hummel (16.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.9 apg); G Lewis Jackson (10.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg,4.2 apg); G Kelsey Barlow (8.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.7 apg); G Ryne Smith (9.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.1 apg); G John Hart (1.6 ppg)

Newcomers: F Donnie Hale, C A.J. Hammons; SG Rapheal Davis; PG Ronnie Johnson; PF Jay Simpson; G Stephen Toyra

Starting 5: G Terone Johnson Jr. (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.0 apg); F D.J. Byrd, Sr. (8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg); G Ronnie Johnson, Fr.; C A.J. Hammons, Fr.; F Travis Carroll, Jr. (2.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg)

It’s a rebuilding year in West Lafayette. Purdue loses 63.6% of their scoring from a team that made it to the second round in the NCAA tournament last season. No loss is bigger than Robbie Hummel. Hummel led the team in scoring and rebounding last year and his experience will be missed. Coming in to replace all that was lost will be three top recruits in C A.J. Hammons, SG Raphael Davis, and PG Ronnie Johnson. Hammonds might be the best of the bunch and his size certainly helps—he’s 7’0” and 275. Problem is, Purdue will be very young and inexperienced this season. There’s talent there, but I don’t see the freshmen making a big enough impact for Purdue to compete.  There’s always next year…

Check back for my mid-conference predictions tomorrow!