We've looked at the the non-contenders in the Big Ten, now let's take a look at the contenders.
Wisconsin Badgers
Last year: 24-9 overall, 12-6 (4th)
Prediction: 13-5
Coach: Bo Ryan (11 years, 269-101)
Losses: PG Jordan Taylor (14.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.1 apg); SG
Rob Wilson (4.0 ppg, 1.4 rpg); F Jared Uthoff (redshirt)
Newcomers: PG George Marshall; G Zach Bohannon; SF Sam
Dekker; G Zak Showalter
Starting 5: PG George Marshall, Fr.; SG Ben Brust, Jr. (7.3
ppg, 2.2 rpg); C Frank Kaminsky , Soph. (1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg); C Jared Berggren,
Sr. (10.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.7 bpg); F Ryan Evans, Sr. (11.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6
apg)
I hear it all the time; “Wisconsin was good last year, but
how will they replace (insert player name here)?” Year after year Bo Ryan
manages to find players to fill the gaps and contend for a Big Ten title. This
year will be no different. The Badgers lose their starting point guard and
leading scorer from last year in Jordan Taylor, but RS Freshman George Marshall
drew rave reviews from the coaching staff over the summer. He wasn’t named the
starter, but due to Josh Gasser’s ACL tear a few weeks back, Marshall will have
to step up if the Badgers have dreams of a Big Ten title. The bigger question
now is the SG spot (Gasser was thought to split time between the two
positions). Junior guard Ben Brust should fill that role nicely but is nowhere
close to the defensive presence of arguably the 2nd best defender in
the conference in Gasser. The good news is that, of all the contributors
outside of Brust and Dekker, the Badgers are a solid to phenomenal defensive
team. Should the Badgers need someone to step up and score as the shot clock is
winding down, look to freshman forward Sam Dekker, who is widely considered to
be one of, if not the top, incoming recruits in the entire conference. The
Defense will carry this team to it’s 15th consecutive NCAA
tournament.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Year: 27-7
overall, 13-5 (t-1st)
Prediction: 13-5
Coach: Thad Matta (8 years, 221-65)
Losses: C Jared Sullinger (17.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.2 apg); G William
Buford (14.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.7 apg); G Jordan Siebert (3.0 ppg); F J.D.
Weatherspoon (2.9 ppg)
Newcomers: SG Amedeo Della Valle
Starting 5: G: Lenzelle Smith G, Jr. (6.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0
apg); Aaron Craft, Jr. (8.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.0 apg); F Sam Thompson, Soph. (2.1
ppg, 1.1 rpg); F: Deshaun Thomas, Jr. (15.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.7 apg); C: Amir
Williams, Soph (1.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg)
The Buckeyes lose two of their top three scorers from a team
that went to the Final Four last season, but it’s what they return that will
keep them near the top of the league.
Junior guard Aaron Craft is by far the best defender in the Big Ten, and
Deshaun Thomas is one of the best returning players in the conference. But
questions still remain; will the Buckeyes have a post presence this year? If
they can get any type of solid production Amir Williams, look out, as that will
draw the defense in and give more space for Deshaun Thomas to operate. If
Williams doesn’t work out, Ohio State can turn to Evan Ravenel who scored 3.4
ppg last year as a junior. The Buckeyes aren’t very deep, but they are talented—talented
enough to challenge for a Big Ten title.
Michigan Wolverines
Last Year: 24-9 overall, 13-5 (t-1st)
Prediction: 13-5
Coach: John Beilein (5 years, 91-77)
Losses: G Zack Novak (9.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.8 apg); G Stu
Douglass (7.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg); F Evan Smotrycz (7.7 ppg, 4.9 ppg); G Carlton
Brundidge (0.4 ppg); F Colton Christian (0.4 ppg)
Newcomers: SF Glen Robinson III; C Mitch McGary; SF Nick
Stauskas; SG Caris LaVert; F Max Bielfeldt
Starting 5: G Trey Burke, Soph. (14.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.6 apg);
G Tim Hardaway Jr., Jr. (14.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.1 apg); G Matt Vogrich, Sr. (2.3
ppg, 1.3 rpg); F Glenn Robinson III, Fr.; C Jordan Morgan, Jr. (7.3 ppg, 5.6
rpg)
When looking at the Wolverines, one thing stands out; the
duo of guards Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Both scored over 14 ppg last
season and are primed to be the go-to guys for Michigan this year. The
Wolverines might be the most talented team in the Big Ten but their depth is a
glaring problem. Outside of the starting 5 (which already includes a freshman),
only one player has gotten meaningful minutes—Jon Horford averaged 2.7 ppg in
10.8 minutes last year through 9 games before being shut down with a foot
injury. Michigan has a great incoming class that should see a lot of playing time
this year. Robin, McGary, and Stauskas are all top 100 recruits. They’re young
and talented, but can they play defense? Michigan was in the middle of the pack
in that regards last year, so it will be interesting to see if they can improve
on that. If they can, Michigan
will have a fantastic season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Last Year: 25-8 overall, 11-7 (5th)
Prediction: 14-4
Coach: Tom Crean (4 years, 55-75)
Losses: G Verdell Jones III (7.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.2 apg); F Tom
Pritchard (1.3 ppg); F Kory Barnett (0.4 ppg); G Matt Roth (4.3 ppg); G Daniel
Moore (0.1 ppg)
Newcomers: PG Yogi Ferrell; SF Jeremy Hollowell; PF Hanner
Mosquera-Perea; Ron Patterson; C Peter Jurkin
Starting 5: PG Yogi Ferrell, Fr.; G Jordan Hulls, Sr. (11.7
ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg); G Victor Oladipo, Jr. (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.0 apg); F
Christian Watford, Sr. (12.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.3 apg); C Cody Zeller, Soph. (15.6
ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
When talking about Indiana, it starts with sophomore center
Cody Zeller. Not only will he be in the running for BIG player of the year, but
he could also be in the running for National POY. Zeller is a force in the
paint and a big reason why so many are high on Indiana this season, but their
best attribute is depth and experience—the Hoosiers return their top five
leading scorers from last season. Added to the mix is highly touted PG, Yogi
Ferrell. Ferrell is quick and has a strong defensive game, which certainly will
be welcomed by the Hoosier faithful. If Indiana wants to compete for more than
just a Big Ten title, their defense has got to improve. Since Pomeroy began
keeping stats in 2003, the average defensive efficiency of the national
champion was ranked around 9th in the country. The Hoosiers were 64th
last year. They already have a great offense—probably the Big Ten’s best—but if
they have aspirations of a championship, that has got to improve. I think it
will, but not by that much and that’s why I have a hard time seeing Indiana as
the nation’s top team. They will, however, be top-10 good and that’s why they
will tie for the Big Ten title.
Michigan State Spartans
Last Year: 27-7 overall, 13-5 (t-1st)
Prediction: 14-4
Coach: Tom Izzo (17 years, 412-169)
Losses: SF Draymond Green (16.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.8 apg); G Brandon
Wood (8.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.9 apg); G Austin Thornton (5.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg); G Joe
Sweeny (0.2 ppg); C Anthony Ianni (0.1 ppg); G Dan Chapman (0.0 ppg)
Newcomers: SG Gary Harris; C Matt Costello; PF Kenny
Kaminski; SF Denzel Valentine
Starting 5: G Keith Appling, Jr. (11.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.9 apg);
G Gary Harris, Fr.; C Adreian Payne, Jr. (7.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg); F Branden Dawson,
Soph. (8.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg); F Derrick Nix, Sr. (8.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Michigan State lost Big Ten POY, Draymond Green, but that
won’t stop them from competing for yet another Big Ten title, Tom Izzo always
finds a way. Even with the departure of Green and Wood, the Spartans are still
loaded with depth and experience. The only questions I have revolve around how
the Spartans will operate without a dominant post player. If Appling and incoming freshman Harris
can still have space on the outside it could be a huge year for the Spartans.
Defense will once again be what carries the Spartans so the offensive post play
will be the x-factor. I think the combo of Nix, Payne, and Dawson are primed
for huge years and that is a big reason why I have them atop the conference
once again.
______
Once again here are my predictions for this year:
Projected standings
Michigan State 14-4
Indiana 14-4
Michigan 13-5
Ohio State 13-5
Wisconsin 13-5
Minnesota 9-9
Iowa 8-10
Purdue 6-12
Penn State 6-12
Illinois 6-12
Northwestern 4-14
Nebraska 2-16
BIG POY: Cody Zeller (Indiana)
BIG DPOY: Aaron Craft (Ohio State)
BIG COY: Tom Izzo (Michigan State)
Obviously I think the race for the Big Ten title will be a
close one all season and some of you might be surprised that I think teams such
as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State will all pick up a fair amount of losses
this season. All three will be good to great, yes. However, the BIG is an
incredibly strong conference top to bottom and those losses are more or less a
representation of how good the middle and bottom half of the conference will
be. One thing is for sure, this will be a fun year to watch to Big Ten basketball.
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