2013 Milwukee Brewers: an early look

With the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers’ season in the books, it’s time to take a very early look at the roster for 2013. Who’s all coming back? Where are the holes and who could be potential options to fill these holes? Let’s start with the projected roster:

1B Corey Hart (10 M)

2B Rickie Weeks (10 M)

SS Jean Segura (500 k)

3B Aramis Ramirez (10 M)

C Jonathan Lucroy (750 k)

LF Ryan Braun (8.5 M)

CF Carlos Gomez (3.4 M)*

RF Norickika Aoki (2.0875 M)

BEN C Martin Maldonato (500 k)

BEN 1B Mat Gamel (500 k)

BEN OF Logan Schafer (500 k)

BEN ?

BEN ?

SP Yovani Gallardo (7.75 M)

SP FA

SP Wily Peralta (500 k)

SP Johnny Estrada (1.6 M)*

SP Mike Fiers (500 k)

RP Chris Narveson (800 k)*

RP Mark Rogers (500 k)

RP Jim Henderson (500 k)

RP John Axford (5.1 M)*

RP Brandon Kintzler (500 k)

RP ?

RP ?

*Arbitration estimates found here

As of this moment, the Brewers payroll stands at 64.4875 million. On opening day last year, the Brewers payroll reached the 100 million mark for the first time in franchise history but it’s unlikely that the payroll will remain the same and I’d actually expect it to drop to somewhere around 90 million. With this budget in mind, the Brewers would have roughly 25 million to spend on 2 bullpen slots, a free agent starting pitcher and 2 more bench spots.

The arbitration estimates could turn out to be different as they are, after all, estimates. As it stands, nine Brewers from this year’s team will be arbitration eligible this winter. I only see 4 of those players returning: Axford, Narveson, Estrada and Gomez. Travis Ishikawa will be non-tendered for sure as the Brewers will already have a lefty 1B off the bench in Mat Gamel. As for the other four, I’d be disappointed if any of them returned to the Brewers. Nyjer Morgan (2.6 M), Jose Veras (2.6 M), Manny Parra (1.6 M), and Kammeron Loe (2.6 M) all had less than stellar performances this past season to say the least and Nyjer certainly isn’t worth it given his antics on the field over the course of his career.

Because I expect Morgan to be non-tendered, the Brewers might look to find a 5^th outfielder for next season to fill one of the vacant bench spots. Milwaukee could look to AAA outfielder Caleb Gindl to fill the spot but I think the more likely option would be through Free Agency or a trade. Personally, I would like to see Scott Hairston in a Brewers’ uniform. He made 1.1 million last season with the Mets and posted a line of .263/.299/.504/.803 with 20 home runs in 377 at bats. His defense has slipped a little as he ages – he’ll turn 33 next May – but he is still serviceable in that regard and can play 2B as well. He also carried a .286/.317/.550/.867 line against left handed pitchers last season whereas  4^th outfielder Logan Schafer is effective against left handed pitchers. He’d be a solid pickup.

As for the final bench spot, expect that to be filled by an infielder, most likely a shortstop. Looking at the free agent market, there aren’t a lot of options here (Yuniesky Betancourt is available…just kidding; I’d rather sign a statue), so the Brewers would almost be better off orchestrating a trade to fill this spot as I would like to see someone who can play SS and 3B. Current Brewer Jeff Bianchi can play both positions but he struggled offensively in limited playing time posting a .188/.230/.348/.578 line. Ultimately I think he ends up in Nashville next season.

I feel like the Brewers could really use another starting pitcher for 2013. Yes, the Brewers have a plethora of young arms at their disposal such as Fiers, Rogers, and Peralta, but one more proven starter could do wonders for this team. I’d much rather see the Brewers spend money on another pitcher than spend money improving the offense. Josh Hamilton inMilwaukee? No thanks. There’s no reason to tamper with the offense after it led the NL in runs, home runs, and stolen bases last year. Not to mention Hamilton isn’t the greatest fielder. Save the money for a starting pitcher.

There are only a few starting pitchers I’d like to see the Brewers go after and it starts with the number one pitcher on the free agent market this winter, Zack Greinke. If the Brewers could somehow sign Greinke to a somewhat reasonable deal, they should go for it. Greinke reportedly turned down a contract extension of over 100 million this summer so I’m not exactly sure how much money he is looking to get, but I would be okay with a 5 year, 110 Million deal along the lines of what Matt Cain got (5 yr, 122.5 M). This would give the Brewers a very good 1-2 punch with Gallardo for years to come.

This is of course a risky deal for a small market team such as the Brewers and with Braun’s new contract set to kick in in a few years, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers decided to go cheaper. Brandon McCarthy, Hiroki Kuroda, Anibal Sanchez, even Shaun Marcum could all be potential options that wouldn’t command nearly the same amount of money as Greinke on the open market.

What will be even more interesting this offseason is how Melvin decides to approach the bullpen. As I said previously, I don’t expect Loe, Veras, or Parra to return next season. If Parra is in fact non-tendered the Brewers will have to search for another left handed reliever as well as one more righty. There are so many options here it’s way too difficult to predict who Melvin will go after. Last winter he traded for a bullpen arm (Veras for McGehee), and I wouldn’t be shocked if he tried to do that again.

A complete list of 2013 MLB free agents, look here