Sunday, November 11, 2012

2012-2013 Big Ten Basketball Preview pt. 3/3


 We've looked at the the non-contenders in the Big Ten, now let's take a look at the contenders.

Wisconsin Badgers
Last year: 24-9 overall, 12-6 (4th)
Prediction: 13-5
Coach: Bo Ryan (11 years, 269-101)

Losses: PG Jordan Taylor (14.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.1 apg); SG Rob Wilson (4.0 ppg, 1.4 rpg); F Jared Uthoff (redshirt)

Newcomers: PG George Marshall; G Zach Bohannon; SF Sam Dekker; G Zak Showalter

Starting 5: PG George Marshall, Fr.; SG Ben Brust, Jr. (7.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg); C Frank Kaminsky , Soph. (1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg); C Jared Berggren, Sr. (10.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.7 bpg); F Ryan Evans, Sr. (11.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 apg)

I hear it all the time; “Wisconsin was good last year, but how will they replace (insert player name here)?” Year after year Bo Ryan manages to find players to fill the gaps and contend for a Big Ten title. This year will be no different. The Badgers lose their starting point guard and leading scorer from last year in Jordan Taylor, but RS Freshman George Marshall drew rave reviews from the coaching staff over the summer. He wasn’t named the starter, but due to Josh Gasser’s ACL tear a few weeks back, Marshall will have to step up if the Badgers have dreams of a Big Ten title. The bigger question now is the SG spot (Gasser was thought to split time between the two positions). Junior guard Ben Brust should fill that role nicely but is nowhere close to the defensive presence of arguably the 2nd best defender in the conference in Gasser. The good news is that, of all the contributors outside of Brust and Dekker, the Badgers are a solid to phenomenal defensive team. Should the Badgers need someone to step up and score as the shot clock is winding down, look to freshman forward Sam Dekker, who is widely considered to be one of, if not the top, incoming recruits in the entire conference. The Defense will carry this team to it’s 15th consecutive NCAA tournament.

Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Year:  27-7 overall, 13-5 (t-1st)
Prediction: 13-5
Coach: Thad Matta (8 years, 221-65)

Losses: C Jared Sullinger (17.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.2 apg); G William Buford (14.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.7 apg); G Jordan Siebert (3.0 ppg); F J.D. Weatherspoon (2.9 ppg)

Newcomers: SG Amedeo Della Valle

Starting 5: G: Lenzelle Smith G, Jr. (6.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg); Aaron Craft, Jr. (8.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.0 apg); F Sam Thompson, Soph. (2.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg); F: Deshaun Thomas, Jr. (15.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.7 apg); C: Amir Williams, Soph (1.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg)

The Buckeyes lose two of their top three scorers from a team that went to the Final Four last season, but it’s what they return that will keep them near the top of the league.  Junior guard Aaron Craft is by far the best defender in the Big Ten, and Deshaun Thomas is one of the best returning players in the conference. But questions still remain; will the Buckeyes have a post presence this year? If they can get any type of solid production Amir Williams, look out, as that will draw the defense in and give more space for Deshaun Thomas to operate. If Williams doesn’t work out, Ohio State can turn to Evan Ravenel who scored 3.4 ppg last year as a junior. The Buckeyes aren’t very deep, but they are talented—talented enough to challenge for a Big Ten title.

Michigan Wolverines
Last Year: 24-9 overall, 13-5 (t-1st)
Prediction: 13-5
Coach: John Beilein (5 years, 91-77)

Losses: G Zack Novak (9.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.8 apg); G Stu Douglass (7.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg); F Evan Smotrycz (7.7 ppg, 4.9 ppg); G Carlton Brundidge (0.4 ppg); F Colton Christian (0.4 ppg)

Newcomers: SF Glen Robinson III; C Mitch McGary; SF Nick Stauskas; SG Caris LaVert; F Max Bielfeldt

Starting 5: G Trey Burke, Soph. (14.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.6 apg); G Tim Hardaway Jr., Jr. (14.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.1 apg); G Matt Vogrich, Sr. (2.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg); F Glenn Robinson III, Fr.; C Jordan Morgan, Jr. (7.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg)

When looking at the Wolverines, one thing stands out; the duo of guards Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Both scored over 14 ppg last season and are primed to be the go-to guys for Michigan this year. The Wolverines might be the most talented team in the Big Ten but their depth is a glaring problem. Outside of the starting 5 (which already includes a freshman), only one player has gotten meaningful minutes—Jon Horford averaged 2.7 ppg in 10.8 minutes last year through 9 games before being shut down with a foot injury. Michigan has a great incoming class that should see a lot of playing time this year. Robin, McGary, and Stauskas are all top 100 recruits. They’re young and talented, but can they play defense? Michigan was in the middle of the pack in that regards last year, so it will be interesting to see if they can improve on that.  If they can, Michigan will have a fantastic season.

Indiana Hoosiers
Last Year: 25-8 overall, 11-7 (5th)
Prediction:  14-4
Coach: Tom Crean (4 years, 55-75)

Losses: G Verdell Jones III (7.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.2 apg); F Tom Pritchard (1.3 ppg); F Kory Barnett (0.4 ppg); G Matt Roth (4.3 ppg); G Daniel Moore (0.1 ppg)

Newcomers: PG Yogi Ferrell; SF Jeremy Hollowell; PF Hanner Mosquera-Perea; Ron Patterson; C Peter Jurkin

Starting 5: PG Yogi Ferrell, Fr.; G Jordan Hulls, Sr. (11.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg); G Victor Oladipo, Jr. (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.0 apg); F Christian Watford, Sr. (12.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.3 apg); C Cody Zeller, Soph. (15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)

When talking about Indiana, it starts with sophomore center Cody Zeller. Not only will he be in the running for BIG player of the year, but he could also be in the running for National POY. Zeller is a force in the paint and a big reason why so many are high on Indiana this season, but their best attribute is depth and experience—the Hoosiers return their top five leading scorers from last season. Added to the mix is highly touted PG, Yogi Ferrell. Ferrell is quick and has a strong defensive game, which certainly will be welcomed by the Hoosier faithful. If Indiana wants to compete for more than just a Big Ten title, their defense has got to improve. Since Pomeroy began keeping stats in 2003, the average defensive efficiency of the national champion was ranked around 9th in the country. The Hoosiers were 64th last year. They already have a great offense—probably the Big Ten’s best—but if they have aspirations of a championship, that has got to improve. I think it will, but not by that much and that’s why I have a hard time seeing Indiana as the nation’s top team. They will, however, be top-10 good and that’s why they will tie for the Big Ten title.

Michigan State Spartans
Last Year: 27-7 overall, 13-5 (t-1st)
Prediction: 14-4
Coach: Tom Izzo (17 years, 412-169)

Losses: SF Draymond Green (16.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.8 apg); G Brandon Wood (8.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.9 apg); G Austin Thornton (5.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg); G Joe Sweeny (0.2 ppg); C Anthony Ianni (0.1 ppg); G Dan Chapman (0.0 ppg)

Newcomers: SG Gary Harris; C Matt Costello; PF Kenny Kaminski; SF Denzel Valentine

Starting 5: G Keith Appling, Jr. (11.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.9 apg); G Gary Harris, Fr.; C Adreian Payne, Jr. (7.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg); F Branden Dawson, Soph. (8.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg); F Derrick Nix, Sr. (8.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.0 apg)

Michigan State lost Big Ten POY, Draymond Green, but that won’t stop them from competing for yet another Big Ten title, Tom Izzo always finds a way. Even with the departure of Green and Wood, the Spartans are still loaded with depth and experience. The only questions I have revolve around how the Spartans will operate without a dominant post player.  If Appling and incoming freshman Harris can still have space on the outside it could be a huge year for the Spartans. Defense will once again be what carries the Spartans so the offensive post play will be the x-factor. I think the combo of Nix, Payne, and Dawson are primed for huge years and that is a big reason why I have them atop the conference once again.
 ______

Once again here are my predictions for this year:

Projected standings
Michigan State            14-4
Indiana                        14-4
Michigan                     13-5
Ohio State                   13-5
Wisconsin                   13-5
Minnesota                     9-9
Iowa                            8-10
Purdue                         6-12
Penn State                   6-12
Illinois                         6-12
Northwestern              4-14
Nebraska                     2-16

BIG POY: Cody Zeller (Indiana)
BIG DPOY: Aaron Craft (Ohio State)
BIG COY: Tom Izzo (Michigan State)

Obviously I think the race for the Big Ten title will be a close one all season and some of you might be surprised that I think teams such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State will all pick up a fair amount of losses this season. All three will be good to great, yes. However, the BIG is an incredibly strong conference top to bottom and those losses are more or less a representation of how good the middle and bottom half of the conference will be. One thing is for sure, this will be a fun year to watch to Big Ten basketball.

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