Now that the college basketball offseason is upon us, our attention turns to underclassmen that could potentially declare for the upcoming 2016 NBA draft. One of those underclassmen is Wisconsin Badgers star Nigel Hayes. Along with Bronson Koenig, Hayes was one of two starters to return this past season from the team that made it all the way to the national championship game last April. Without players like Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser and others, Hayes became the focal point of every opponents' defense and had to assume a bigger leadership role this year.
It was clear Hayes wasn't quite ready to become the focal point of the offense early on, but once Greg Gard took over and installed the swing offense, Hayes found his rhythm. He put up a respectable 15.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 3.0 apg this past season but saw his efficiency dip. In 2014-15, Hayes shot 39.6% from behind the arc and hit 49.7% of his shots overall. This season his numbers dipped drastically - he shot 29.3% from behind the arc and only 36.8% overall. Whether this drop was caused by the defense keying in on him, or if he was just uncomfortable with his new shooting mechanics (He changed the over last summer to try and get his shot up quicker), I'm not sure, but his draft stock has taken a hit because of it. There is no room for an undersized power forward who can't shoot in today's NBA. His shooting troubles are why I think he will ultimately return to Madison for his senior season.
Let's walk through Hayes decision anyways. On Tuesday Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard announced that Hayes had submitted his name to the NBA draft advisory board. The NBA draft advisory board gives players feedback on where they can expected to be drafted and what they can improve on. Players have until April 11th to submit their name and feedback must be given by the 21st.
The next step, should Hayes decide to, is do declare for the NBA draft. A player can declare for the draft and still return to school, but only if they do not hire an agent. The deadline for declaring is April 24th. If Hayes doesn't declare by then, then one could assume he didn't hear what he wanted to from the NBA draft advisory board. I would expect him to declare and at least test the waters or push off making an actual decision until later - it is a pretty important decision after all.
If he does declare, then the NBA combine will follow on May 13-15. Typically only 60 players get invited to this event and if you don't get invited (Hayes might not) then you're probably better off returning to school and trying to raise your draft stock for the next year. Players have 10 days until after the combine to determine if they will actually declare for the NBA.
None of this is even taking into account was Hayes would rather do. If he returns to school and gets hurt, his draft stock could be even worse. Or maybe Hayes is okay with playing next season in the NBA development league or playing in Europe. He would get a paycheck going down either of those roads, and Nigel is no fan of the NCAA.
Ultimately, it's his decision and he has to make it. I don't think he gets drafted but If he wants to collect a paycheck and try and make it to the NBA through the D-league or Eurpoe I can't blame him. He could be a potential first round pick next year though, which is worth a lot more guaranteed money then playing in Europe or the D-League. As a Badger fan, I hope he chooses the latter option because next year's team could be special if Hayes returns.
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